[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192149 
IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-200015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ORE...SERN WA...AND NWRN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192149Z - 200015Z

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NERN ORE. ACTIVITY
WILL PROGRESS NEWD AT 20-25 KT TOWARD SERN WA AND WRN/NWRN ID DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. 

SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN 40-45KT 500MB FLOW CONTINUES NEWD
ACROSS CENTRAL ORE AT 2130Z. FORCING PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND
100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COVERING THE ERN HALF OF ORE. PDT VAD
INDICATES 40-50KT MID-UPPER LEVEL SSWLY FLOW...AND SFC-6KM SHEAR
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...OF 7-8 C/KM
IN 700-500MB LAYER PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOULD SUPPORT
STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HAIL.  CONDITIONS SUGGEST LONG-LIVED STORMS WITH
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SPREADING NEWD TOWARD FAR
SERN WA/WRN AND NWRN ID DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIOD.

..BANACOS.. 07/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

45281666 44641731 44041827 43932010 44172065 44502085
44842081 45582030 45852012 46741930 47251875 47581814
47731751 47751691 47571647 47331580 46731519 46221547 

WWWW