[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192109
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192109 
NEZ000-SDZ000-192315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0409 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/WRN NEB AND FAR SWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192109Z - 192315Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED NATURE OF
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. 

SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
FROM BBW WNWWD TO THE SWRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE. VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES TOWERING CU HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH FROM BBW TO CDR. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN ABSOLUTE CINH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WY EWD INTO
CENTRAL NEB...WHICH MAY PERMIT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE STORMS ALONG
ESE-WNW ORIENTED CONVERGENCE ZONE/SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...STORMS SPREADING SLOWLY EWD FROM FAR ERN
WY WILL AFFECT THE NEB PANHANDLE NWD INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA.

SYNOPTICALLY...REGION IS LOCATED ON NERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG FOUR
CORNERS UPPER RIDGE. FLOW FIELDS ARE NOT STRONG...WLY AT 5-10KT PER
AREA VAD WIND DATA AND PROFILERS FROM THE SFC THRU 5KM AGL. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES ADVECTING EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL
NEB DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS /AROUND +14C/. ANTICIPATE A FEW SLOW
MOVING T-STORMS IN DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT /SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 50F/...WITH THE CHANCE OF HIGHLY
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DRY MICROBURSTS.

..BANACOS.. 07/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS...

40899919 40980038 41290261 41560335 41860370 42180392
42730398 44480390 44320240 43110139 42560044 42239953
42039903 41719858 41379851 

WWWW