[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192331 
WIZ000-MNZ000-200100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MN THROUGH NRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192331Z - 200100Z

STORMS MAY POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO AS THEY DEVELOP SWD THROUGH NRN WI
AND E CNTRL MN NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

THIS EVENING AN E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MI WWD THROUGH NRN WI. OTHER MORE SUBTLE BOUNDARIES
ALSO EXIST FARTHER N ACROSS PARTS OF NE MN. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF
THESE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. DESPITE PRESENCE OF SOME DIRECTIONAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR...
OVERALL SHEAR MAGNITUDE IN THE LOWEST 3 KM REMAINS MODEST OWING TO
ABSENCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET. THE 0-3 KM DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY
DECREASE FURTHER AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SWD THROUGH NRN WI. HOWEVER...SHEAR IN THE
0-6 KM LAYER WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND...A BRIEF TORNADO AND POSSIBLY HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP
SWD. OWING TO MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...OVERALL HAIL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY HIGH
AND TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

..DIAL.. 07/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

45098862 45649198 46259275 46499213 46059016 45748821 

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