[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191816 
MTZ000-IDZ000-192045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID AND WRN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191816Z - 192045Z

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN ID INTO FAR
WRN MT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED
WITH LONGER-LIVED/STRONGER CELLS.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD AND
FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD INTO SRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING NRN ID IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORM CELLS ACROSS THE BITTERROOT RANGE. LARGE-SCALE FORCING
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A BAND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD INTO WRN MT...WITH MOVEMENT ENEWD AT
15-20 KT. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30
KT...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED STORMS.
INSTABILITY IS PRESENTLY LIMITED ACROSS FAR WRN MT /100MB MLCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG / BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG WITH
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING /TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S/. WBZ HEIGHTS
AROUND 8 KFT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS AS
STORMS PROGRESS THROUGH NRN ID AND INTO FAR WRN MT DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

..BANACOS.. 07/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...

46031626 46921639 47501654 48081668 48551658 48831577
48961449 48631372 48201339 47221277 46751258 46421265
46091274 45761304 45571331 45421368 45281426 45201512
45401595 

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