[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191906 
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-192130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1733
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AND SERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191906Z - 192130Z

ISOLATED DRY MICROBURST POTENTIAL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO NWD INTO SERN WY. LOCALIZED
NATURE OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. 

AT 1850Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM SERN WY SSWWD ACROSS
THE CO FRONT RANGE. REGION IS LOCATED JUST NE OF UPPER HIGH
CENTER...BUT AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /700MB DEWPOINTS
4-6C/ IS YIELDING 100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH DIURNAL
HEATING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. PLATTEVILLE PROFILER INDICATES DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW OF LESS THAN 10 KT...WITH A SLOW SEWD DRIFT OF
THUNDERSTORM CELLS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK FLOW REGIME AND CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE
ADJACENT PLAINS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT PERSIST FAR FROM
ELEVATED TERRAIN. POTENTIAL FOR DRY MICROBURSTS WILL EXIST AS STORMS
DISSIPATE EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
AS SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 45F BY LATE
AFTERNOON. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AT DEN BETWEEN 22-01Z. WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS SHOULD
MITIGATE THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL.

..BANACOS.. 07/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...

40370548 41510503 42430489 42550423 41100390 40490369
40050370 39570372 38180449 38180485 38710525 39250556
39700565 

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