[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191801 
NCZ000-SCZ000-192030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 191801Z - 192030Z

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS.  A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/LEE TROUGH
SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL SECTIONS OF NC/SC.  AIR MASS VCNTY/EAST OF
THESE TSTMS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR MINUS
7C.  TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AS
UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES TOWARD THE COAST.  30-40 KT
H5 WINDS ON SE SIDE OF THIS TROUGH MAY AUGMENT UPDRAFTS...AND A FEW
OF THE TSTMS MAY BECOME STRONGER AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.  THE OVERALL NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE THE SOMEWHAT WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS MAY RESULT IN ISOLD
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS.

..RACY.. 07/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

33558099 35007949 36057808 35747653 34627768 32778067 

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