[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 190153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190153 
SDZ000-NEZ000-190400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0853 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD THROUGH WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 653...

VALID 190153Z - 190400Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS...MAINLY WITH SUPERCELLS
MOVING SEWD FROM SERN SD INTO EXTREME WRN MN. OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING FARTHER EAST ACROSS NRN MN.

THIS EVENING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A NE-SW
ORIENTED BOUNDARY CONTINUE SE THROUGH SERN ND AND SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MIGHT EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO EXTREME WRN MN. THE STORMS
REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL VEERING...0-1 KM SRH
FROM 150 TO 200 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT. STORMS ARE
ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THE
00Z ABERDEEN SOUNDING SUGGESTS AS THE STORMS CONTINUE SEWD...THEY
WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ESPECIALLY AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL.

THE MODEST 20-25 WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FURTHER
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SEWD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND LIFT ON COOL SIDE OF N-S GRADIENT ALONG THE ND-MN BORDER...AND
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AND
CNTRL MN LATER THIS EVENING.

..DIAL.. 07/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

43450050 44440148 44970178 45410136 45840063 45519993
44099913 41699833 41419941 

WWWW