[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182313 
SDZ000-NEZ000-190115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1727
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0613 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN THROUGH CNTRL SD AND N CNTRL-NERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182313Z - 190115Z

STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP SSEWD INTO CNTRL SD. OTHER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS N CNTRL THROUGH WRN PART OF
NE NEB. ISOLATED MOSTLY HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MICROBURSTS WILL EXIST THROUGH MID EVENING. 

THIS EVENING ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY
OF A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN ND SWWD THROUGH NWRN SD. STRONG
MIXING S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 ACROSS
THE WRN HALF OF SD. A N-S TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL SD FROM
NEAR MOBRIDGE SWD TO NEAR PIERRE. E OF THIS BOUNDARY...RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY EXIST WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE
FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN N CNTRL SD
MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP SSEWD INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY NEXT FEW HOURS. 

OTHER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG AN E-W BOUNDARY FROM N CNTRL
NEB WWD THROUGH NWRN NEB. THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ERN PART OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALS INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS SSEWD
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ISOLATED AND SHOULD BEGIN AN OVERALL DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS LATER THIS EVENING.

..DIAL.. 07/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

43450050 44440148 44970178 45410136 45840063 45519993
44099913 41699833 41419941 

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