[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172201 
OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN CO...WRN OK PANHANDLE...WRN TX
PANHANDLE...AND NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 172201Z - 180030Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO...THE WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND NERN NM.
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
CORES. LIMITED COVERAGE OF SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW.

AT 21Z...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
SWWD INTO ERN CO...WITH A MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW PRESENT SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS INTO SERN CO/NERN NM. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL NM NWWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES IS SUPPORTING NWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 25-30 KT ACROSS ERN CO SEWD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE...AND SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KT. PRESENCE OF LOW
60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS SERN CO...FAR NERN NM...AND THE PANHANDLES IS
CONTRIBUTING TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND MINIMAL
CIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND
STORM CLUSTERS MOVING SSEWD FROM SERN CO ACROSS NERN NM AND THE WRN
PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW EMBEDDED SEVERE/LONG-LIVED
CELLS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL OR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH WET
MICROBURSTS. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES 6-6.5 C/KM AND HIGH WBZ
HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL EXTENT OF ACTIVITY EXCEEDING SEVERE
LIMITS.

..BANACOS.. 07/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

35270205 35080351 35550475 36410512 37590506 37780440
37900298 37390211 36480202 

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