[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172325 
LAZ000-TXZ000-180130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN TX THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 172325Z - 180130Z

SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND GUSTS EXISTS WITH STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH NRN LA. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP WWD
THROUGH ERN AND CNTRL TX. THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID EVENING
BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS AN OVERALL DECREASE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING. UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZING
INTO LINES OR A LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS EVENING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NRN LA WSWWD
THROUGH CNTRL TX NEAR KILEEN. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED IN LAPSE RATES WITH VALUES
GENERALLY AOB 6.5 C/KM IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW TOWERING CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH ERN TX AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WV IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN MCV MOVING SEWD
THROUGH NRN TX...AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY BEGIN
TO INTERSECT TX PORTION OF FRONT WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MODEST
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR GENERALLY AOB 30 KT WILL SUPPORT
MULTICELL STORMS. CAP INCREASES WITH WRN EXTENT INTO TX ...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY LIMIT COVERAGE TO
ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS.

..DIAL.. 07/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

31139724 31709531 32539300 32189185 31059229 30469554
30459703 

WWWW