[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171838 
COZ000-172145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CO FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL CO MTNS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 171838Z - 172145Z

LOCALIZED THREAT OF 2"/HR RAINFALL RATES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CO
FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT AREAS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

AT 18Z...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
OVER THE MTNS OF CENTRAL CO EWD TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE BETWEEN COS
AND BOULDER WITH DIURNAL HEATING. MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS RESULTING IN
LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA /MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 18Z/. SYNOPTICALLY...AREA IS LOCATED NEAR
STRONG 500MB RIDGE AXIS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL NM NNWWD ACROSS WRN CO
AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. MID-LEVEL MOIST PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SW MONSOON HAS BECOME ENTRAINED WITH THE RIDGE...WITH 700MB
DEWPOINTS IN THE 6-8C RANGE FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN EWD ACROSS MUCH
OF CO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO
AT DENVER...BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENT NEAR 1.25" FOR HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS
GIVEN EXTREMELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS.  PROFILER AT PLATTEVILLE
INDICATES MEAN SFC-6KM WIND SPEED OF 2 KT...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN LOW
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN UPPER RIDGE LOCATION.
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY YIELD LOCALIZED
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2"/HR WITH STRONGER CORES THROUGH THE PEAK
HEATING PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BANACOS.. 07/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT...

38340454 39840466 40180489 40290530 40090720 39560717
38890628 38610597 37830553 37560533 37320501 37340470
37860445 

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