[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170718 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-170815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR / NERN LA / MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652...

VALID 170718Z - 170815Z

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF WW...SEVERE
THREAT OVER MUCH OF WW HAS DECREASED.  WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 17/08Z.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS SERN AR
ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR WHICH EXTENDS SWD INTO LA /
FAR SWRN MS.  MORE STABLE AIRMASS -- AND THUS WEAKER CONVECTION --
IS INDICATED ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO W CENTRAL MS...WHERE EARLIER
CONVECTION OCCURRED.

ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SERN AR / NERN LA AND
SWRN MS -- ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF WW...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS
SOMEWHAT WEAK -- PARTICULARLY AT MID-LEVELS WHERE ONLY 15 TO 20 KT
FLOW IS INDICATED.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED /
MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORMS.  

IF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL -- AND AN ASSOCIATED LINE OF STORMS ALONG
LEADING EDGE -- COULD EVOLVE FROM STORMS OVER SERN AR ATTM...THREAT
FOR GUSTY / MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT. 
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR ANY MESOSCALE
INDICATIONS OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...BUT ATTM NEW WW IS NOT
EXPECTED AFTER THE 17/08Z EXPIRATION OF WW 652.

..GOSS.. 07/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

34239179 33529110 31439017 30979098 31169190 32469267
33839262 

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