[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170305 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-170400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1720
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT/WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 651...

VALID 170305Z - 170400Z

OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHING AND WW WILL LIKELY BE
CANCELLED WITHIN THE HOUR.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DECREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO...LEADING TO A RAPID DEMISE IN ONGOING STORMS OVER ERN MT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT MAIN AREA OF FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/MCV IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS SWRN MANITOBA INTO
CNTRL ND WHERE ENVIRONMENT IS CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE.
THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED SUCH THAT WW 651 MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE HOUR.

..MEAD.. 07/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

47660936 48240530 47920128 46090127 45050938 

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