[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162344 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-170045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR/NERN LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 648...

VALID 162344Z - 170045Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA FOR THE NEXT HOUR SO. AN ADDITIONAL...
POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF AR/NRN LA INTO WRN MS.

SYNTHESIS OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
REGION...TWO OF WHICH WERE LOCATED FROM FAR SRN MS /N OF GPT/ NWWD
INTO NERN LA /E OF MLU/ TO W OF GLH...AND ANOTHER FROM S OF GWO TO
SW OF LIT. THOUGH WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY STABILIZED
MUCH OF REMAINING WW AREA...AIRMASS TO THE W ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AR SWD
ACROSS MUCH OF LA HAS NOT BEEN OVERTURNED WITH MLCAPES STILL AROUND
2500-3500 J/KG.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT REGION AHEAD OF MCV /CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK/ MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF AR/NRN LA
INTO WRN MS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE SO FAR TODAY...HOWEVER DEVELOPING WLY LLJ ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION.

IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. WW 648 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THE
TOP OF THE HOUR...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW RE-ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING.

..MEAD.. 07/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

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