[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162229 
NDZ000-SDZ000-170000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1714
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162229Z - 170000Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A COUPLE OF CONFLUENCE ZONES
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE AREA...ONE FROM NEAR P24 INTO
S-CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER FROM NW OF MBG TO NEAR SDY. A
STORM HAS RECENTLY INITIATED ON THE FORMER OVER MOUNTRAIL COUNTY  IN
NWRN ND. TSTMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING SEWD THROUGH SRN SASKATCHEWAN ENHANCES MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG
THESE SURFACE FEATURES.

RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. IF STORMS CAN BECOME
SUSTAINED...PRESENCE OF 40-50KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

LOCAL PROXIMITY OF LARGER-SCALE RIDGE AXIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL
BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE...SUGGESTING THAT STORMS MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED OR NOT ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...HOWEVER.

..MEAD.. 07/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

49000404 49020100 45899984 45920291 

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