[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162201 
COZ000-NMZ000-170030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN CO FRONT RANGE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 162201Z - 170030Z

POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1.5-2
INCHES/HOUR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD TSTMS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE CO ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FRONT RANGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF CA WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PW VALUES OF 1.3-1.5 INCHES. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ELY FLOW OBSERVED THROUGH THE LOWEST 1.5KM ON
CURRENT PUEBLO VWP SHOULD TEND TO VEER TO SELY THROUGH
17/06Z...HOWEVER UPSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN REGION OF
DEEP ASCENT ALONG FRONT RANGE. CURRENT AND FORECAST STORM MOTIONS
INDICATE A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEING THE CNTRL/SRN CO FRONT RANGE WHERE STORM
TRAINING WILL BE MOST LIKELY.

..MEAD.. 07/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...

37090635 38430641 39680549 40410474 39930372 38520380
37040422 36580523 

WWWW