[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162037 
MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-162230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1712
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN OK AND CENTRAL/SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162037Z - 162230Z

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN
UPCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SERN AR. NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.


VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MCV NEAR THE S-CENTRAL
KS/N-CENTRAL OK BORDER CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AT 25 KT. AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE SE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS ERN OK/WRN
AR...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LESSENING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AS
MCV MIGRATES SEWD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NWLY DEEP-LAYER
FLOW...WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT...SHOULD SUPPORT A FORWARD
PROPAGATING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN INITIATION...SEWD INTO
CENTRAL/SRN AR THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

..BANACOS.. 07/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

35439593 35669496 35619285 35499211 34569096 33979094
33319122 33219207 33309364 34169556 

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