[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162014 
AZZ000-162245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 162014Z - 162245Z

AREAS OF CENTRAL AZ ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N-CENTRAL AZ DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

AT 20Z...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
WIDESPREAD ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM NWRN YAVAPAI COUNTY
ESEWD ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATED PW VALUES
OF 1.72" AT PHX AND 1.54" AT TUS...WITH MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG OVER THE MTNS EAST OF PHX AT 20Z.
SYNOPTICALLY...AREA IS LOCATED WEST OF A 500MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER NM. THIS IS SUPPORTING ELY TO SELY 3-6KM FLOW ON FGZ VAD WIND
PROFILE. STORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME ARE MOVING ALONG/PARALLEL TO THE
MTNS. HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING IN THE VALLEYS...WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED 100+ IN THE PHX METRO
AREA...SHOULD ALLOW FOR PROPAGATION OF CELLS AND STORM OUTFLOW WWD
INTO THE VALLEY/BASINS OF CENTRAL AZ BY EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AROUND 40F SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
WINDS GIVEN ABOVE SCENARIO...AND MAY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE
NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

OTHER THREAT WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE RIM...AND ALSO FROM
PRESCOTT NWWD ACROSS WRN YAVAPAI COUNTY. HIGH PW VALUES AND TRAINING
OF CELLS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF 2"+ HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

..BANACOS.. 07/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

32531082 32501202 33141317 34201362 35001386 35521355
35651191 35371140 34971096 34451042 34291027 33780987
33160981 32530992 

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