[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161551 
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-161815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MI...NWRN IND...SRN WI...NRN IL...AND ERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161551Z - 161815Z

POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED
HAIL THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN IA TO SWRN MI/NWRN IND. AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW NEXT 1-3 HOURS. 

AT 1530Z...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG WIND
SHIFT/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR GREEN BAY SWWD INTO
CENTRAL IA. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MODEST MID-LEVEL VORT MAX IS
MOVING SSEWD ACROSS NRN WI WHICH MAY ALSO BE SUPPORTING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CELLS WERE TRACKING 330/20-25
KT. SOME INCREASE IN SPEED IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IF ORGANIZED
MESOSCALE COLD POOLS CAN DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.

DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE ENVIRONMENT
DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT ACTIVITY...WITH MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN A BAND ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN IL. MUCAPE
OF 1500-2000 J/KG IS LIKELY ACROSS SWRN MI/NWRN IND. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS ALREADY MINIMAL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...SO
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS ERN IA/FAR SRN WI GIVEN
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL PVA. DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING BOW SEGMENTS BY AFTERNOON WITH
DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LONGER LIVED CELLS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW NEXT 1-3
HOURS.

..BANACOS.. 07/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

42749180 42989157 43078965 43198756 43228676 43098518
42558481 42348484 41808499 41558518 41368538 41268571
41088666 41028747 41018858 40819081 41239124 

WWWW