[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161642 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-161945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MS...WEST CNTRL AND SWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 161642Z - 161945Z

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH CENTRAL MS SWD
INTO SERN MS.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  WW ISSUANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ARE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...AND BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING
LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED HEATING TO OCCUR.  THIS IS RESULTING IN
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  VERTICAL
WINDS/SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM ARE RELATIVELY WEAK SUGGESTING THAT
STORMSCALE ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED.  HOWEVER...NON-SATURATED
AIR PRESENT IN 12Z JAN SOUNDING ABOVE THE SURFACE SUGGESTS THREAT
FOR ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT GENERATION AND LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS.  IN
ADDITION...AMPLE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES AND SLOW CELL MOVEMENT INDICATE THREAT OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.  A WW FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM...HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR
POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
INCREASED MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

..WEISS.. 07/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

31409033 32809033 33939014 34068943 33688838 32508793
31258777 30498841 30819014 

WWWW