[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 160834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160833 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-161030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS / WRN MO...

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 160833Z - 161030Z

MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS NWRN MO...AND TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS E CENTRAL AND NERN KS. 
WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MO AND EXTREME
EASTERN KS.

SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORM HAS EVOLVED OUT OF ELEVATED STORM
CLUSTER MOVING SSEWD ACROSS NWRN MO...AND IS APPROACHING THE KANSAS
CITY AREA ATTM.  DAMAGING WINDS -- INCLUDING 51 KT GUST AT MCI AND
PUBLIC REPORT OF A TORNADO IN CLAY COUNTY -- HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS
STORM OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR.

THUS FAR...ONLY ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN SEVERE DUE TO RELATIVELY
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...AND CAP WHICH
CONTINUES TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD / INTENSE
STORMS.

HAVING SAID THAT...ONGOING SUPERCELL IS MOVING SWD TOWARD MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...SUGGESTING
THAT THIS STORM AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE.  RADAR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO ORGANIZE INTO SMALL BOW
ECHO...WITH ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

MEANWHILE...HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NWRN MO AS STORMS
TRAIN / MOVE ESEWD REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS WITHIN MOIST /1.5
TO 1.75" PRECIPITABLE WATER/ AIRMASS.

..GOSS.. 07/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

40439523 40329448 38409307 37589284 37249375 37239500
38129623 39099629 40169607 

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