[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 160434
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160434 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-160600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO NERN KS AND NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 160434Z - 160600Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE
STORMS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

AS OF 0424Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED TSTMS INCREASING
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO FAR NWRN MO.
OMA/DSM/TOP VWPS ALL INDICATE A PERSISTENT WAA SIGNATURE...LIKELY
SUPPORTING ONGOING STORMS ABOVE CAP OBSERVED ON 00Z OMA/TOP
SOUNDINGS WHERE MUCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR ABOVE CAP REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH RELATIVELY WARM
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH WBZ HEIGHTS OF 11.5-12.5 KFT SHOULD
PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT MELTING AND LIMIT OVERALL HAIL POTENTIAL.

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.

..MEAD.. 07/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

42159628 41699457 40309317 39009254 38409355 38089474
39069628 41369703 

WWWW