[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 160102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160101 
ARZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1700
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO/AR/NRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642...

VALID 160101Z - 160300Z

...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA...BUT
ESPECIALLY NW AR/SW MO...

TOWERING CUMULUS EXTENDS FROM JOHNSON/WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN NW
ARKANSAS BACK INTO SW MO. STORMS HAD INITIALLY BEEN PREFERENTIALLY
FORMING ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE NOW WEAKENING
OVER BAXTER/STONE COUNTIES AS THEY MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. LATEST LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THE MOST ACTIVE AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER NW AR...AND THE CONCERN IS ON BACKBUILDING CELLS ON
THE NW SIDE. BOTH 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM SPRINGFIELD AND LITTLE ROCK
LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH OVER
5000 J/KG AT LZK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KT...AND ASSUMING A
COLD POOL CAN FORM WITH ONGOING CELLS ACROSS AR...THE SYSTEM MAY
ALSO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD PER MCS MOTION VECTORS.

..TAYLOR.. 07/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

31739199 34059479 37599472 35309191 

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