[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 160053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160053 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1699
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD AND PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 640...

VALID 160053Z - 160200Z

POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
EXISTS WITH SUPERCELLS OVER NERN NEB. CONTINUE WW.

AS OF 0030Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A SUPERCELL OVER
W-CNTRL ANTELOPE/SERN HOLT COUNTIES IN NERN NEB MOVING SWD AT
10-20KTS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS STORM IS COLOCATED
WITH A MESOLOW NW OF OFK WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. 00Z OAX SOUNDING INDICATED PRESENCE OF MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG...HOWEVER A
PRONOUNCED CAP WAS OBSERVED IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSELY TIED TO THIS SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WHERE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CAN FORCE PARCELS TO THE LFC.

SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN
ONGOING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEST DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR / I.E. 0-1KM
SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 / SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS THAT CAN OVERCOME INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR.

..MEAD.. 07/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

43569910 43579645 40629691 40649939 

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