[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 152247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152246 
NMZ000-AZZ000-160045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1696
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0546 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL/SERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152246Z - 160045Z

...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS BEING MONITORED FOR SCNTRL/SERN AZ FOR STORMS
DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS SERN AZ...

MEAN FLOW ALOFT PER FLAGSTAFF VWP DATA IS SELY...AND MAINLY PARALLEL
TO THE MOGOLLON RIM. STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXTEND SEWD FROM FLAGSTAFF
INTO THE WHITE MTNS WILL THEREFORE PROPAGATE ALONG THE RIM STAYING
FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER NW...NEAR LAS VEGAS...AIRMASS
IS NOT AS UNSTABLE...PROBABLY DUE TO EARLIER STORMS. IN ADDITION 18Z
FLAGSTAFF SOUNDING HAD ONLY MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE
VALUES JUST OVER 1000 J/KG. 

THE GREATER CONCERN FOR SEVERE IS ACROSS SERN AZ NEAR TUS...WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100...AND LAPSE RATES
ARE OBVIOUSLY STEEPER. THESE STORMS...GIVEN STRONGER SELY FLOW ALOFT
OF AROUND 20 KT...WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER
VALLEYS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TUS/PHX METRO AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

..TAYLOR.. 07/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

31320910 31581170 33861277 35251232 35311122 35150903 

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