[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 152241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152241 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-160015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1695
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152241Z - 160015Z

POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO FROM PORTIONS OF ERN ND INTO CNTRL MN /NE OF AXN/ AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH NRN MN. THOUGH DOWNSTREAM
AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN MN IS ONLY WEAKLY TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...CURRENT WOOD LAKE PROFILER
SUGGESTS THAT AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE S...INFLOW SOURCE REGION
WILL LIKELY BE MORE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS ERN SD
WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 2500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...
THIS PROFILER INDICATES RELATIVELY LONG HODOGRAPH WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 50-55KTS. IF STORMS CAN TAP AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER AIRMASS OVER
ERN SD...DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

STORMS MAY ATTEMPT TO CONGEAL INTO FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WWD DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO STRONGER CAP
OVER ERN SD. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR.

..MEAD.. 07/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

46219789 46109300 43529303 43589783 

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