[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151655 
NEZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-151900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151655Z - 151900Z

SMALL CLUSTER OF INTENSE CONVECTION WAS TRACKING ALMOST DUE SOUTH
ACROSS NERN NEB. AN ISOLD HAIL THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
CELLS. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO EVOLVE FROM THIS
ACTIVITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

MID LEVEL PERTURBATION AND ASSOCIATED SMALL SCALE NWLY WIND MAX
DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS ERN SD APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO SUSTAINED
ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ON THE EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION.
TSTM INTENSITY HAS BEEN CYCLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THE
COMPLEX....AND NOW NEW DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE STORMS IN PIERCE AND
WAYNE COUNTIES. STRONG UPSTREAM INSTABILITY OVER WRN/CNTRL NEB
COUPLED WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION... AND MODEST NWLY
FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND PERHAPS
SUPERCELLS. CURRENT ACTIVITY COULD MAINTAIN SEVERE INTENSITY...IN
THE FORM OF HAIL AND PERHAPS WIND... ACROSS ERN NEB OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

43769831 43459720 41819622 40149563 40129738 42469837
43289914 

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