[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151509
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151508 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-151745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1684
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151508Z - 151745Z

NUMEROUS STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WEAK
ORGANIZATION AND RANDOM NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN THIS AREA WITHIN A WATCH.

NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE ERUPTED ALONG WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE GENERALLY
ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER AREA. VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP WILL
PERSIST BENEATH BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO CONFLUENCE AXIS...SEA BREEZES AND
RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD RESULT IN POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY...STORM COVERAGE...AND STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL REPORTS...IN ADDITION TO VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

30178126 29758272 30028487 30388521 31068541 31558490
31588341 31638233 31688157 31528124 

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