[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151728 
MNZ000-NDZ000-151930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND AND NRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151728Z - 151930Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NRN PLAINS INTO NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST 30-40KT
NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IMPULSE SHOULD ENHANCE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT ALONG SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED
SW TO NE ACROSS ERN ND AND INTO NWRN MN. MODEST NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
ATOP WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A FEW
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. DESPITE SUPERCELL THREAT...TORNADO
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.

..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

48489287 46789345 46609495 47269603 47729659 48609790
48989739 48969484 

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