[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151432 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-151630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1683
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0932 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD....NERN NEB...NWRN IA

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 151432Z - 151630Z

ISOLD HAIL POTENTIAL SPREADING SEWD TOWARD THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED
FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST 40KT NWLY
FLOW APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SERN
SD THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS WAS
SPREADING SEWD AT ABOUT 30KT ON THE ERN EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING
INVERSION. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING ON THE NOSE OF WEAK WSWLY LLJ AND A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND
WAS NOTED IN REFLECTIVITY AND VIL OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR. EXPECT
THIS WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE BASED ON LATEST ETA MODEL GUIDANCE.
EXPECT NEW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG UPSTREAM OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN SD/NERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS CAP
IS BREACHED IN THESE AREAS.

..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...

43639631 42349615 42199680 42909753 43279824 43849810
43879675 

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