[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141017 
TNZ000-KYZ000-141115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY...TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141017Z - 141115Z

...WW NOT ANTICIPATED FOR INCREASING CONVECTION OVER KY/NRN TN...

PERSISTENT NWLY WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO
BE AIDING RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS ATOP CONVECTIVE COLD
BUBBLE HIGH.  OF SOME CONCERN IS THE ARCING MCS-TYPE STRUCTURE THAT
HAS EVOLVED FROM OHIO COUNTY KY...SWWD INTO LYON COUNTY KY.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING SEWD ALONG APPARENT PREDISPOSED
CONVECTIVE ZONE...PER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING INTO NRN TN
WELL AHEAD OF MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX.  GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF
THIS ACTIVITY IT APPEARS THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED
WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT LIKELY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW.. 07/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

37378619 36248400 35548439 35778567 36478724 

WWWW