[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140452 
NEZ000-SDZ000-140615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL NEB/FAR SRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 140452Z - 140615Z

ORGANIZING COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
NCNTRL NEB/FAR SRN SD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT
ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

0352Z SFC OB AT IEN /PINE RIDGE SD/ SAMPLED WLY GUSTS TO 37KTS IN
WAKE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS FAR NW NEB. LATEST /04Z/
SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SEMI-ORGANIZED COLD POOL HAS
DEVELOPED INVOF SW SD/NW NEB BORDER...WITH FORWARD PROPAGATION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/COLD POOL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E/SE AT 30-35 KTS
ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF INSTABILITY AXIS.

SCENARIO MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SEVERE INTO NCNTRL NEB/FAR
SCNTRL SD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /IN EXCESS
OF 8.0 C/KM PER 00Z LBF SOUNDING/ WOULD SUGGEST SEVERE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE...SURFACE BASED INHIBITION WILL TEND TO BE
PROHIBITIVE FACTOR FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SFC.

..GUYER.. 07/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

43310160 43269928 42799810 41499832 41449943 41670140
42110220 

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