[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 132309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132308 
MIZ000-140115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1652
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622...

VALID 132308Z - 140115Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW.

FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET...60+ KT AT  500
MB/90-100 KT AT 250 MB...APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE BAND NOW SPREADING INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. 
THIS IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE 03-04Z TIME FRAME...AND WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN MOIST...WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG... ONGOING STORMS
SHOULD INTENSIFY.  THOUGH WIND FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES IN EXIT REGION
OF UPPER JET ARE RATHER MODERATE...THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR
HEAVY RAIN CONTRIBUTES TO SURFACE COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED GUST
FRONT. THUS...RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
INCREASE...AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE  AT LEAST A
FEW MORE HOURS.

..KERR.. 07/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

42208317 41958486 41968577 42578591 43268580 44148507
44898434 45518433 

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