[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 132256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132255 
NMZ000-AZZ000-140100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1651
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL AZ/SWRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 132255Z - 140100Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE TAKEN SOME TIME IN DEVELOPING THIS
AFTN...BUT RECENT SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INTENSIFYING STORMS
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ.
MODIFYING THE 18Z OBSERVED TUCSON SOUNDING WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS
OF 100/61 YIELDS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG. TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 35-45 DEGREES COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM...SO STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A
FEW STORMS. IN ADDITION...MIDLEVEL ELY FLOW OF AROUND 20 KT ALSO
NOTED ON SOUNDING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR MIXING
DOWN TO THE SFC COMBINED WITH ACCELERATION OF DOWNBURST WINDS. 18Z
AND OBSERVED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES IN SOME CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN AZ.
THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS.


HIGHER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 MAY HELP STORMS MOVE INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO...SO A WW MAY BE NEEDED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..TAYLOR.. 07/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

31391072 32631300 35451322 36061181 35380914 33900798
32430770 31850831 31330827 

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