[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 132201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132200 
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-140000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1650
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SRN IN...NRN AND CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 623...

VALID 132200Z - 140000Z

NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.  DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS INCREASING.

COLD POOLS GENERATED BY EARLIER SUPERCELLS HAVE MERGED INTO LARGE
STRONG COLD POOL...WEST OF INDIANAPOLIS INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF
SPRINGFIELD IL.  THIS FEATURE IS SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 40
KT...AND WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED AS STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION FIELD/ZONE OF STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.  MEAN MIXED
LAYER CAPE IN SOURCE REGION FOR PARCELS COMPRISING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
IS VERY LARGE...IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...AND RISK OF LARGE HAIL WILL
CONTINUE IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREAT NOW APPEARS
TO BE BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH GUST
FRONT...WHICH WILL SURGE THROUGH THE LOUISVILLE KY AREA BY 14/00Z.  


VERY STRONG  NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET...100+ KT AT 250 MB
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING.  THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
ACCELERATION OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...SUPPORTING RISK OF
VERY STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 KT ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 07/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

39458599 39588554 39188486 38758411 38438360 38168321
37328342 36918485 37128587 37598720 37848806 38318898
38828940 39408978 39918991 39958914 39418812 39188732 

WWWW