[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131533
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131532 
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-131730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NRN IL...NWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131532Z - 131730Z

RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER NWRN IL OVER THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH AN ISOLD SUPERCELL LOCATED OVER JO DAVIESS COUNTY.
VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL AND NWRN IND SUGGESTS A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED ALONG WEAK PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE
AXIS WHICH RUNS FROM ERN IA INTO NWRN IL AND SRN WI. IN ADDITION
SMALL SCALE MCV WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS IA IN THE WAKE OF LATE DAY
CONVECTION ON MONDAY. THESE FACTORS COUPLED WITH CONTINUING AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASINGLY
SUPPORT FURTHER VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. DVN
VWP DATA WAS SHOWING STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE AND SRH VALUES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

..CARBIN.. 07/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...ARX...

40918965 41459212 42779163 41358706 40218739 

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