[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131509
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131508 
MIZ000-WIZ000-131715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI....U.P. OF MI...NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131508Z - 131715Z

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY AFTERNOON. WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF WI AND MI.

LATEST ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT FROM WRN LS SWD ACROSS NWRN WI AND
THEN SWWD ACROSS IA. A SMALL CLUSTER OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION...AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/COLD POOL...WAS TRACKING EAST TOWARD MIDDLE
SECTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MI. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...PRONOUNCED
DIFFLUENCE WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 65-70KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ATOP A STEADILY
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. EXPECT TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO
INCREASE AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLD
CELLS APPEAR TO BE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN THE U.P. OF MI...AS WELL AS THE
OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION NEAR ONEIDA AND FOREST COUNTIES IN NRN
WI. WITH SOME CAPPING LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
POINT...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE ONGOING STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...OR WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT IN ANOTHER FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WATCHES CAN
BE ANTICIPATED GIVEN STRENGTH OF FORCING...INSTABILITY... AND SHEAR
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

..CARBIN.. 07/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

44338425 44298872 45568986 46598692 46598410 44888332 

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