[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131819 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-132015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131819Z - 132015Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND
SERN WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
PERHAPS TORNADOES. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME
INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVED
SOUNDING DATA WERE INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 3500 J/KG
THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR INTENSE AND POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY... MODEST COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW WAS
TRACKING ESE ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL WI. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WAS ANALYZED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
BISECTING SRN WI FROM SW TO NE. ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF HEATING
COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARILY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES.
ACTIVITY MAY THEN TEND TO LINE UP ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT LATER
TODAY WITH WIND THREAT SPREADING EAST ACROSS SRN LM.

..CARBIN.. 07/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...

42518782 42509064 43249096 44228976 44148742 

WWWW