[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130219 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-130415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1637
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND/ERN SD/WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 130219Z - 130415Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT.  WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO.

SCATTERED NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS.  THIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WHICH HAS ADVECTED OFF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  INITIATION APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...STRONGLY SHEARED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LACK OF STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET AND FOCUS FOR LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY
LIMIT EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER.

..KERR.. 07/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

46189769 47309634 47769582 48239336 47449253 44999333
42899360 42759576 43229735 43909927 44760074 

WWWW