[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130419
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130419 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-130615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1638
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB/SW IA/NW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614...615...

VALID 130419Z - 130615Z

TORNADO WW 614 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. 
CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW 615. 
AREAS OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 615 ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW.

DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS SUPPRESSING NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER...SOUTH OF THE GRAND ISLAND AREA.  INHIBITION APPEARS WEAKER
FROM THE MID INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...ALONG MOISTURE AXIS
REFLECTED BY MID/UPPER 70S DEW POINTS IN LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES.

THUS...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SLOWEST TO
DIMINISH IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIVER BETWEEN OMAHA NEB AND ST.
JOSEPH MO.  WHILE VIGOROUS LEAD CELL...NOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA...
MAY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHEAST OF
ST. JOSEPH...BY 05Z...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE
WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. 20 TO 25 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS APPEARS
LIKELY TO ENHANCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE COLD POOL NEAR/SOUTH OF
THE OMAHA AREA...WHERE CAPE REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
WITH LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 07/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

41699609 41439441 40509354 39889391 39719519 40009676
39979815 40389905 41019773 41639700 

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