[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130045 
NEZ000-130245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB AND WRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 613...

VALID 130045Z - 130245Z

CONTINUE WW.

VERY LARGE INTENSE CELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA FED BY INFLOW OF EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG.  ACTIVITY SHOULD APPROACH
THE GRAND ISLAND AREA BY 02Z...BUT MAY STALL JUST TO THE NORTH OF
CITY...WHERE FORCING ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
BECOME FOCUSED.  THIS SOUTHERLY JET APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 35 KT THIS EVENING...AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MID-LEVEL INHIBITION EVIDENT IN 00Z SOUNDING FROM OMAHA IS A
CONCERN...BUT EVOLUTION OF SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM STILL
APPEARS POSSIBLE.  SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE STRONG BENEATH MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURSTS AND EVOLUTION OF STRONG SURFACE COLD POOL
NEAR/NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF GRAND ISLAND THROUGH 02-04Z TIME
FRAME.

..KERR.. 07/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

41939879 42119725 41919671 41409641 40799651 40819765
40869837 41259908 41729896 

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