[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120953 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-121100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 610...

VALID 120953Z - 121100Z

DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL-CNTRL MN
THROUGH 11-12 UTC.

NRN PART OF THE LINEAR MCS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED SINCE 09 UTC
AS IT ENCOUNTERED MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE RED RIVER VLY.
 AS A RESULT...LATEST STATUS GUIDANCE HAS CLEARED NRN PARTS OF WW
610 WHERE REINTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY.

TO THE SOUTH...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS NERN PERIPHERY OF AN
INSTABILITY AXIS INTO WCNTRL/SWRN MN...AND SRN END OF THE LINE HAS
MAINTAINED CHARACTER THIS MORNING.  GRAND FORKS AFB OBSERVATION
NOTED A 47KT WIND GUST AT 0848Z.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK
ESEWD INTO THE FERGUS FALLS...PELICAN RAPIDS AND DETROIT LAKES AREAS
BETWEEN 1000-1100 UTC WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS.  WILL MAINTAIN
WW FARTHER E TOWARD THE BRAINERD AND LITTLE FALLS REGION...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME THEY REACH THESE
LOCATIONS.  IF THAT IS THE CASE...WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

..RACY.. 07/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

45929749 47769719 47689369 45919414 

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