[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121353 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-121600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1629
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0853 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND/NERN AND ERN SD/WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121353Z - 121600Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD AND
WRN MN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A WATCH MAY BE NEED OVER PARTS OF
THIS REGION SOON.

RECENT SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER FAULK COUNTY APPEARS TO HAVE
OCCURRED WHERE STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTED LEE/THERMAL
TROUGH AXIS WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
FLOW AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY 
CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...STRONG MESOSCALE
FORCING INVOF OUTFLOW AND LEE TROUGH...COMBINED WITH A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF HEATING ACROSS ERN SD...SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INTENSE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY LATEST
ETA...ETAKF...AND GFS MODEL RUNS WITH THOSE MODELS GENERATING
CONVECTIVE QPF AND MODEST UVVS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.

..CARBIN.. 07/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

46200015 46219568 43659608 43650047 

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