[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120813 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...EXTREME NRN SD AND NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609...610...

VALID 120813Z - 120945Z

DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREATS WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
BY 09Z AND INTO NWRN MN THEREAFTER.  

WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS EVOLVED FROM ONGOING MCS AND
WAS CENTERED VCNTY PILOT MOUND MANITOBA AT 08Z.  STRONG REAR INFLOW
WRAPPING AROUND THIS ENTITY WAS SAMPLED IN WAKE OF THE LINEAR MCS
WITH MINOT AFB VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 50 KTS BELOW 1KM AND 70 KTS
AT 2KM.  STRONGEST WIND SIGNATURE PASSED JUST NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE
AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING GIVEN EXPANDING STRATIFORM-TYPE PCPN
JUST TO ITS WEST.  HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS... POSSIBLY TO SEVERE
LEVELS...MAY OCCUR DOWNSTREAM INTO NWRN MN GIVEN HOW WELL-ORGANIZED
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR EWD THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL ADVANCE GIVEN MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TOWARD
INTERNATIONAL FALLS. 

MEANWHILE...CELL MERGER HAS OCCURRED VCNTY JAMESTOWN AND RESULTANT
CELL APPEARS TO HAVE BRIEFLY GAINED SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. 
THIS CELL IS APT TO RIDE NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS
INTO THE FARGO AREA THROUGH 930Z.  WHILE LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CELL MAY EVOLVE INTO A BOW AND GIVE DAMAGING WINDS
TO AREAS EWD THROUGH WCNTRL MN BEFORE DAYBREAK.

FINALLY...TO THE SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION DERIVED TSTMS CONTINUE TO
BACKBUILD INTO NCNTRL SD AND MAY GIVE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
AREAS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF WW 609.

..RACY.. 07/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45380070 46760050 47559870 48959771 48989296 45849398
45839807 45579813 

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