[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120629 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND...EXTREME NRN SD AND NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 607...609...

VALID 120629Z - 120800Z

DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREATS WILL BE SPREADING EWD INTO THE
RED RIVER VLY AND PERHAPS INTO NWRN MN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  A WW
WILL BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM INTO NWRN MN.

GRAND FORKS WEATHER RADAR SHOWS A DEVELOPING BOW ECHO AROUND 50
MILES WEST OF DEVILS LAKE WITH TIGHT HIGH REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE AND REAR INFLOW NOTCHES ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LINE.  THUS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH 07-09Z WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA EWD TO THE RED RIVER NORTH OF GRAND
FORKS AS IT TRANSLATES EWD AT 45 KTS.  

THOUGH THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM EAST OF THE RED RIVER IS MORE STABLE
THAN FARTHER WEST...UPSTREAM MCS IS WELL-DEVELOPED AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY EXTEND EWD INTO NWRN MN.  AS SUCH...ANOTHER WW
DOWNSTREAM WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

OTHERWISE...TSTMS ARE APT TO BACKBUILD WWD ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ALONG NOSE OF 30 KT LLJ.  MAXIMUM WARM
ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA THROUGH 10Z AT LEAST. 
MUCAPES TO 2500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE CAPE BEARING SHEAR WILL ENCOURAGE
LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION IN THE STRONGER STORMS.  MOST OF THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY WILL STAY INVOF SRN EDGE OF WW 609.

..RACY.. 07/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45580064 46360211 46950113 47650044 48400043 48980122
49029736 48899549 48129438 46929513 45709656 45519753 

WWWW