[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120435
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120434 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-120630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN MT...ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 607...608...

VALID 120434Z - 120630Z

WW 608 LIKELY WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY.  CONTINUE REMAINING VALID
PORTION OF WW 607.  SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
EASTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT.

DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH CONVECTIVE LINE
AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE MINOT AFB AND BISMARCK AREAS BY 06Z. 
SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER EASTWARD INTO THE DEVILS LAKE AND
JAMESTOWN AREAS MAY BEGIN TO MITIGATE WIND POTENTIAL ALONG GUST
FRONT THEREAFTER.  HOWEVER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO SASKATCHEWAN WILL
MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH DAKOTA/EXTREME NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE OF 1000
TO 2000 J/KG FOR MOIST PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION
LAYER WILL SUPPORT RISK OF LEAST LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

..KERR.. 07/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...

48979879 47869888 46319770 45359745 45310057 45320207
45420305 45460309 45880346 46820323 47350370 47410422
47430428 47670529 48620427 49050409 

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