[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120219 
NDZ000-MTZ000-120415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT AND WRN/CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605...607...

VALID 120219Z - 120415Z

CONTINUE WW 607.  WW 605 WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 03Z.

MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING
ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS/LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.  LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEPEST ALONG THIS AXIS...WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THIS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH
STORMS NEAR BAKER MT...WHERE 0156Z SURFACE OBSERVATION HAD RECORDED
50 KT GUST. 
 
OUTFLOWS APPEAR LIKELY TO MERGE INTO ONE LARGE EASTWARD PROPAGATING
GUST FRONT NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE WEAK
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.  BOUNDARY
LAYER IS INCREASINGLY MOIST ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
...WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70F DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
 DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH EVOLVING SEVERE
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM... WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOT AFB INTO
AREAS WEST OF BISMARCK BY 04-05Z.

OTHERWISE SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CELLS CONTINUE BENEATH COLD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND MAY PERSIST ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...AIDED BY INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.

..KERR.. 07/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

48940147 48130157 47370109 46460133 46100208 46090337
46270413 45770504 45590635 46230857 47040927 47720798
47860740 47820659 48050597 48990563 

WWWW