[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120016 
MOZ000-ILZ000-KSZ000-120215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NRN AND CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604...

VALID 120016Z - 120215Z

REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 604 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z.

AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS A BIT MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... RISK FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. 
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SOUTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE
MISSOURI...AND THOUGH NEW CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE COLUMBIA AND ST. LOUIS AREAS...ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLING UPSTREAM
FLANK OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...FROM NEAR/EAST OF CHILLICOTHE INTO THE
ST. JOSEPH AREA.  THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED WARM
ADVECTION ALONG WEAK WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CURVING IN
ANTICYCLONIC ARC FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.  

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN CONFLUENT REGIME
NORTH OF THIS AXIS NEAR THE CONCORDIA KS AREA. THESE STORMS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION STRENGTHENS WITH ONSET OF
SURFACE COOLING. 

ACTIVITY WEST OF ST. JOSEPH INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY WILL
BE MORE PERSISTENT...BUT MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY/SHORTLY AFTER 03Z
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS/WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED PROGRESSION
OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY.  UNTIL THEN...LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
STRONGEST CELLS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SLOW MOVING/TRAINING
CONVECTION MAY BE PRIMARY THREAT.

..KERR.. 07/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...GID...

39419804 39669696 39939595 39689498 39709388 39339299
39219202 39209131 38999067 38369065 38549183 38759238
38689318 38649415 38999575 38919693 

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