[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112334 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-120100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT...WRN ND AND NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605...

VALID 112334Z - 120100Z

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/SERN MT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE EWD AROUND 30 KTS. LEAD SUPERCELL OVER POWDER RIVER COUNTY
WILL MOVE OUT OF WW 605 BY 01Z. THUS A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF NWRN SD AND WRN ND BEFORE 01Z.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS NEW THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OCCURS AND CONSOLIDATES INTO A LINE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/LEE
TROUGH INTERSECTION OVER CENTRAL MT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN
THE MEAN TIME...THE LEAD OF SEVERAL SUPERCELLS OVER ERN MT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF WW 605 AND INTO WRN ND BY AROUND 01Z.
RELATIVELY HIGH LCL/LFC HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. IF CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE
BECOMING LINEAR EWD INTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS/LOWER LCL
ENVIRONMENT OVER NWRN ND...LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASING AROUND SUNSET
MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

45020815 46280839 49020838 49010011 44920037 

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