[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112219 
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-120015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/SRN IA/NRN AND CNTRL IL/PARTS OF NRN AND
CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 602...603...604...

VALID 112219Z - 120015Z

CONTINUE WW 604.  WW 603 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 23Z.  WW 602
MAY BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL IL.

BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE
WAVES/ CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMA...CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS AIDED CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WHICH HAS GENERATED MERGING SURFACE COLD POOLS NOW
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. 
LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW IS NOW SURGING ACROSS THE SPRINGFIELD IL
AREA...BUT CURVES BACK ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THE KIRKSVILLE
MO AREA...WHERE THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME TEMPORARILY
QUASI-STATIONARY.  ANOTHER SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING PORTION OF OUTFLOW
EXTENDS WEST OF KIRKSVILLE INTO THE VICINITY OF ST. JOSEPH.

WEAK NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF OUTFLOW INTO VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI/SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.  DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...AND HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MEAN MIXED
LAYER CAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS NEW UPDRAFTS NEAR GUST FRONT...WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES MAINTAINING STRONG THERMAL
GRADIENT AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT LEAST INTO EARLY
EVENING.

GIVEN WEAKNESS OF LARGE-SCALE FLOW REGIME...STORM MOTIONS ARE
GENERALLY UNDER 35 KT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE BROADER
SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..KERR.. 07/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP...

40079546 39919450 39849348 40009313 40599245 40169184
39839140 39599065 39878964 40258910 40658890 40598817
39938779 39168824 38788871 38488951 38539047 38819187
38759246 38839344 39089452 39489548 

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